Continuation Betting - Part 1
The continuation bet is such an expected and accepted part of Texas Holdem play pattern that people get in the habit of doing it thoughtlessly. For some characters if they have raised pre-flop then they will be betting the flop, regardless of what cards they hold and the nature of the flop. This has become the norm for a very good reason – it’s generally effective. It’s a simple strategy that players of any standard can carry out. If you’ve hit the flop, then you’re betting a decent hand which is generally a good idea and if you’ve missed the flop then a bet out of the blocks may win you the hand anyway. What could be better? But as with all aspects of poker the continuation bet needs to be applied with intelligence and awareness to be most rewarding.
Firstly, if you raise with strong cards and hit the flop then the continuation bet is typically the right play to make. Your opponents may well call you with mediocre holdings such as top pair with a weak kicker, second pair or a draw. Average-poor players are always likely to do this because they find it hard to fold. This resolve is particularly tested when they’re on the blinds and they really want to see a flop. Then, if they get any piece of it they want to stay involved. From their perspective, all you did was raise and continue betting. That doesn’t mean anything because everyone bets off their own raises. You could have nothing. The dangerous mentality of a chaser is ‘I don’t have much but I have something. Mr Continuation Bet could easily have nothing, and something beats nothing.’
But what about continuation betting when you absolutely nail the flop – when you hit the nuts? This conjures up a dilemma for the pre-flop raiser who always bets the flop but now really wants some action. The great temptation is to suddenly check the flop and hope somebody else gets interested. This can work brilliantly against a novice or any player who has hit the flop well too. But the problem is that most experienced players around the table will hear a siren go off as soon as you check. Nothing ‘announces’ a big hand quite so loudly as a player who has been continuation betting all day, suddenly checking. With this play pattern good players will tread very carefully.
In one obvious example if I raise with AK, get one caller and the board comes Q-A-A, what should I do? The temptation is to check but then even the doziest observer is going to know that I have a great hand. If my opponent has nothing at this stage then a free card is unlikely to change that fact unless he miraculously hits a straight or a full house on the turn, which would be a disaster for me anyway. Furthermore, only a true optimist would attempt to bluff me in this spot when my check looks so strong.
So what if I do make the continuation bet? Well, naturally, there is a strong chance that he has missed the flop and will fold. But crucially if he has anything at all then my weak-looking bet will only encourage him. If he has a lower ace (other than AQ) then he is in big trouble but convinced he is winning. If he holds a queen then second pair looks very tasty against my ‘unconvincing’ bet. Even if my adversary holds any other pocket pair (other than QQ) he may well wrongly think he is in front and decide to raise. A particularly brave soul, let’s face it - probably a fish - may even try to take me off the hand with absolutely nothing if he concludes from my continuation bet that I don’t have an ace.
Conversely, if I’ve raised pre-flop with 99 and the flop comes A-Q-Q I may use my knowledge of what a continuation bet seems to represent here to play my hand shrewdly. Now I may check the flop with the intention of betting the turn to fully represent the ace. Admittedly, this is a move involving some risk since my opponent may have a hand themselves. But thinking logically, if they have hit the flop then my continuation bet at that point would have failed anyway. So really I’m only causing myself potential greater bother with the solitary turn card. Even then my opponent may well fold his superior hand if he’s convinced that I hold an ace.
It’s crucial to realise that there is no definitive right and wrong move in these scenarios. It depends on so many factors – detailed knowledge of your opponent, your current table image, how many hands you’ve played recently, position and chip stack size – to name a few. But robotically betting off your raises without forethought is doomed to failure in the long run. Being predictable is catastrophic against the best players and sooner or later they will punish you for it. So don’t get out-thought and out-played by always doing the same thing.