Bubble Aggression
The tournament bubble is the period of the game when the next person out will leave with nothing whereby everybody else will be assured of a prize. It is the cruellest time to lose, as for all your efforts you earn nothing; the same as that fish who bust out on the very first hand. And they didn’t put in all that time and effort to claim their nothing. This scenario creates a dynamic that changes the mentality of many players at the table. The key to your success is identifying who clams up under the pressure of the bubble and ensuring that you don’t do the same.
The worst thought process you can adopt is ‘I’ll just sit tight until I’ve made the money and then I’ll go for it.’ If this approach goes badly then you may simply be blinded out as the other players exploit your timidity. Rest assured that the best players will constantly be observing and making notes on weak players who can be bullied at this vital juncture. If you are destined to go out on the bubble, be bold and brave, not pathetic and gutless. The latter will be much harder to digest if the worst comes to the worst.
Biding your time is clearly self-destructive if you are the smallest stack at the table because everybody else is in relatively good shape unless you make a successful move. This is fairly obvious to most players but the dangers facing a medium-stack are much more frequently ignored. The smallest stack will frequently recover rapidly if the blinds are quite high and he is shrewd enough to throw his chips in at every good opportunity. Suddenly the medium stack has become the small-stack and the blinds are getting evermore threatening.
Crucially, even when a cautious bubble approach does result in a money finish it still may not have been a successful strategy. The reason for this is that limping into the smallest payout position should never be the objective – you must play to win wherever possible. This may sound like obvious posturing to some people because, of course, we all want to win. But the play-to-win approach has to be taken seriously when you consider the reward structure of most poker tournaments. Take for example the pay-out structure of a typical $55 SNG. First place will typically receive $250 (50% of the prize pool minus fees), second place earns $150 (30%) and third place receives $100 (20%).
Consequently, one first place finish is as good as a second and third combined. So how should this influence our bubble strategy? Put simply, go for the wins and don’t worry about a few fourth places along the way. If in a run of ten games at $55 I emerge victorious in 3 and don’t make the money in the other 7 I will earn $750 from $550 staked. However, if the run of ten games yields 0 wins, 3 seconds, 2 thirds and the rest outside the money I will earn $650 from $550 staked. In other words finishing in the money 30% of the time with all victories is more profitable than making the money 50% of the time with this combination of second and thirds.
In strategic terms this should mean that you aren’t afraid of making a big play which could win you the game even if it could also result in your elimination on the bubble. To illustrate this point imagine a typical SNG bubble scenario where one huge stack is raising every hand against three evenly matched short stacks, one of which is you. The play passes to the big stack on the small blind who moves all-in for the sixth hand in a row. You are sat on the big blind with A9, what should you do? If you know that the big stack is pushing with any two cards then A9 has to be an easy call. It only becomes difficult because of the threat of elimination at this critical stage. Of course you could be unlucky and he has a genuinely big hand this time, or you could be outdrawn by a junk hand, but no matter. All you can do is get your chips in when the odds appear to be in your favour. In the long term a call with A9 in this spot should be profitable. Doubling up at this point gives you a genuine chance of a precious victory. Folding is weak and lacking in courage.
The value of bubble aggression is only magnified further in a multi-table event when the temptation to limp into the money is even greater. You really want something to show for your time and efforts after several hours of play. But this survive at all costs mentality again needs to be banished. The prizes at stake for the top places are even more significant now. If 18th place is $100 then 1st place may well be $3000. Winning the event once is better than scraping into the teen positions two dozen times. Top players will judge their success on how often they make the final few spots rather than how often they make ‘the money’. Playing a strong bubble and picking up pots against the meek is a vital part of reaping such rewards.
The Poker Grafter writes for Oddschecker Poker