Archive for September, 2009

Leopards can change their spots then

Monday, September 21st, 2009

On my way to a minor cash in a $1million tournament last
weekend I had a couple of reminders that you should never
under-estimate your opponent’s ability to adapt and mix up
their play. Well, there was one major reminder to me that
I shouldn’t pigeon-hole my rivals and hopefully a lesson
for somebody else that I can’t be so easily read!
The first incident occurred about three hours into the
deep stack event when I was ticking along comfortably
while the play at the table was generally quite frisky. In
fact I had come to the conclusion that only one player at
the table was a real rock. Everybody else seemed keen to
play at least the odd marginal hand where as the chap to
my immediate right seemed tight and I assumed weak. He
literally didn’t play a hand for the first two hours after
joining the table. Delighted to have such a timid
character to contest the blinds with, I was confident I
could bully him on a very rare occasion when everybody
else folded to him and he elected to call the small
blind. I quickly fired a raise from the big blind with 5-
2o assuming I could quickly take down the pot with the
minimum of fuss. Somewhat surprised that he called the
raise I was confronted by a rainbow flop of A-Q-6. I
paused momentarily before firing a standard bet of about
60% of the size of the pot. My rival flat called quite
quickly at which point the game was up with 5-2o and I’d
have to shut it down.

I have been generally pushing myself to fire more often on
the turn and river because of the dangers of ‘float
callers’ I have discussed before. However, there has to
be a limit to this heightened aggression and if ever that
limit had been reached it was surely now. I mean I was
holding 5-2 against a perceived rock who had flat-called a
flop with three over cards. The situation could surely not
have appeared more forlorn! The turn and river failed to
offer even the faintest prospect of showdown value from a
small pocket pair and I resisted the temptation to fire
again on the river as I couldn’t imagine it would ever
look convincing and was thus a bluff destined to fail. I
had hoped he would bet at some stage so I could at least
muck my hand to avoid showing the trash I had made a move
with, but alas he did not and was able to see my feeble
holdings.
But what was this? He turned over J-6o! This was fairly
extraordinary. There had been nothing to suggest that he
could defend the small blind with such mediocrity pre-flop
let alone call with bottom pair when the first community
cards came as well. I immediately realised that I had been
out-thought by my adversary who was seemingly more aware
of his weak table image than anybody, and was therefore
determined to make a stand no matter what. My irritation
at being outplayed was only extended by the realisation
that a further strong bluff bet on the turn would have
almost certainly ended the pot in my favour. He had called
desperately hoping I was making a move and was indeed
floating me. But regardless of his read and his
determination to stand up for himself there’s just no way
that he could have called a further bet with fourth pair
and a re-raise all-in was quite possibly, surely, beyond
him.

But as frustrating as it was I ultimately wasn’t going to
be too hard on myself. Taking on a rock in position is
generally smart and very few people can suddenly transform
so dramatically. He just played a blinder. A little later
though I gained some redemption with a move made at the
right time that won me a lovely big pot with queen-high..
On this occasion I opened up the betting with a mid-seat
raise holding Q-9o. Incidentally, I don’t just play bad
hands, even if this is the way it seems! These were just
two isolated incidents, and everybody loves a little play
variation. Anyway, I got a call from the player on the
button only who was seeing a fair number of flops against
everybody. Despite my earlier faux pas my table image was
I felt probably pretty sound at this point as I’d stayed
in line for most of the previous two hours and shown a few
big cards. This time however I was scraping the barrel
with Q-9 on another rainbow board of 10-7-2. Again the c-
bet failed to take down the pot and the turn brought
another 7. I paused, then checked and waited to see what
my opponent did. He hesitantly bet about half the pot at
which point I suddenly spotted an opportunity. I got the
distinct impression that he didn’t like that second 7 all
that much although he could easily have had a 10. When
contemplating his range it felt quite likely that he held
something like Q-10 or K-10 and I felt he could be taken
off such a hand. The other possibilities after the flop
call included a set, that would now have become a full
house or even quads, but the speculative bet on the turn
made this seem unlikely. A monster hand like that would
surely encourage a check with the hope of encouraging me
on the river when his hand was already made. I therefore
concluded that a check-raise of 4500 chips on top of his
1500 bet was likely to get through.

Our relevant chip stacks was a crucial factor in this
decision. I had begun the hand with several thousand more
and was therefore able to risk the bluff move knowing that
if it failed I would still have a playable, though heavily
depleted stack. My rival in contrast knew that a re-raise
committed the rest of his stack and that even a flat call
was likely to see him all-in on the river. He therefore
had to be very sure I was bluffing to confidently commit
everything with a hand like K-10 or anything less. He soon
folded; as suspicious as my flop continuation bet may have
looked, the check-raise on the turn had to look much
stronger. That it came after a second 7 made a hand like
A-7 very plausible for me. The audacity of committing so
many chips to the bluff by check-raising rather than
simply firing again was what ultimately made it a good
play. Of course, I might not be looking back quite so
fondly and proudly had I got my read wrong and lost a
massive pot with queen high! But such are the fine margins
of poker where the gap between bravery and stupidity is
never too wide.

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Always the one you least suspect

Friday, September 4th, 2009

Limping is synonymous with passive poker and therefore often discarded as weakness. Serial limpers will often be dismissed as ’calling stations’ who play average start cards hoping to get lucky. Many of the game’s authors point out that simply calling is very often the worst of the plays one can make in many situations. The argument would be that you raise for strength and information or you fold because you’re in trouble. However, it is the weak appearance of the limp that is actually it’s greatest strength. I often try to implement what I call the ‘Columbo move’ in a heads-up scenario when the limp can really come into its own.

Columbo was of course a brilliant fictional detective who’s greatest asset was his shabby appearance and, seemingly slow-witted nature that always made him easy to under-estimate. Invariably the criminal would be lulled into a false sense of security before Columbo provided just enough rope for the perpetrator to hang himself. Cleverly limping the small blind in a heads-up poker contest, the right amount, at the right times, will often snare your victim for much the same reason.

The logic for this ploy has to be worked through from the start. Novice players will quickly discover that limping a lot in a head-up game with trash hands puts you on a hiding to nothing. Most opponents won’t stand for that if the blinds are high and they can push all-in to pick up the pots.  A beginner realises this after several hands are treated the same way and begins to fold his weaker hands instead. Before he knows it he is folding the small blind a huge amount of the time giving the big blind ‘walk after walk‘. With blinds high any stack equality is quickly lost as the aggressor seizes the initiative. Our newcomer then realises that his opponent is pushing the majority of his small blinds all-in to avoid the same fate. Consequently the aggressor is taking the new boy to the cleaners by winning the vast majority of pots from both positions. The novice is then just praying for a massive hand to come along and save the day without which he is simply outplayed. Of course the most common approach is for our beginner to gain confidence and experience and fight fire with fire. Heads-up poker quickly descends into a small blind push-fest.

But your play doesn’t have to be quite so lacking in guile. When AA suddenly appears in the small blind the need for action suddenly jolts the newcomer into a tactical switch. He decides to suddenly revert to limping and wait for the big blind to push his way into trouble. Against another inexperienced player this out-of the-blue limp is indeed likely to set-up the trap successfully. However, the problem is that a wiser opponent will be put on high-alert by the sudden limp and slowdown his own play assuming he has run into a big gun. The obvious nature of the limp flags up the strength and makes a big pot win much less likely.

So what to do to trick a canny opponent? Easy. Limp a little more, with a range of hands. It’s imperative that a limp doesn’t always equate to AA, KK or QQ otherwise you won’t get pushed by the big blind. Let your opponent see that you will sometimes limp in with trash and other times with quality. Unpredictability is the key because it becomes very hard to second guess. I’d imagine a limp about once every 8-10 hands in the small blind after a combination of raises and folds will stand out and get respected, and therefore checked to see a flop. This then opens the door for winning the pot with one continuation bet with virtually anything on most flops. Your opponent may sit there smugly thinking they  are folding to your big hand when you may in fact have nothing at all.

By about the third time you’ve limped in short order your opponent will think it increasingly unlikely that you are only playing monster hands in this fashion. If he’s never played you before he’s actually liable to under-estimate you in true Columbo-style because your frequent limp strategy resembles that of the novice we discussed earlier. The difference is that you’re knowingly setting up the bait by feigning weakness! He will start to play back at you more aggressively and riskily again from the big blind. This will cost you a few small pots but it’s all part of setting up the big moment when a great hand does arrive. And often there’s no need to wait for big start cards to arrive. Success is just as likely to come through sneaking a peak at a flop with something unglamorous. That flopped 2-pair with 10-7s will be very difficult to read!

So playing heads-up poker in the seemingly clumsy manner of a 1970s detective has its merits. Next week I’ll introduce the ‘Miss Marple Stop and Go’ tactic…Well, we’ll see.

Simon Ballou writes for Oddschecker Poker

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