Last week I discussed the dangers of overbetting on a bluff as well as the possible flaws of suddenly underbetting with strength. This time, by taking the same line of thought a stage further, I’ll demonstrate how you can use similar play patterns to create suspicion when you do want it. In other words, once you see what the worst players are doing it may not hurt your chances to impersonate some of those characteristics, and briefly make yourself look bad. Being under-rated is never a bad thing in poker.
Experience shows me that when a player looks weak and suddenly bets disproportionately high on the river, more often than not, he is weak. But sometimes the player actually will be strong and on these occasions it’s the facade of weakness that will prove most lucrative. Before I’m accused on talking in riddles, let me explain by way of a head-to-head example.
Player A has been raising a high percentage of pots prior to the flop and generally follows this through with a continuation bet. Player B has noticed that while Player A will almost always bet the flop, he will typically slowdown or give up on the hand after this point if he thinks he’s behind. With this play pattern noted Player B begins to call a higher percentage of flops, even with very little, with the intention of taking control of the pots on the turn and river. On two occasions in quick succession Player A checks the turn before bluff betting, somewhat unconvincingly, on the river. Both times Player B successfully calls the bluffs with very little but with enough to win. It appears that he has gained the upperhand.
Soon afterwards, Player A is dealt 3-3 and raises pre-flop once again. The flop comes A-7-4 but undeterred he inevitably, and quite reasonably, bets the pot again. Player B has hit top pair with A-2 and flat calls. The turn card brings a jack at which point the increasingly dejected Player A checks with the intention of giving up another battle. But miraculously a rogue 3 comes on the river to provide the perfectly disguised set. At this point Player A is assured of winning the hand having out-lucked his opponent who had begun to outplay him and gain a stranglehold on proceedings. But Player A is about to fully capitalise on his good fortune by maximising his pay-off with one final enormous bet.
For all his weaknesses Player A reads the situation well and assesses recent events constructively. Firstly, he realises that his hand is almost certain to be ahead. There are no full house or flush possibilities and the chances of a straight or better set being out there are incredibly remote. Secondly, he is conscious of having been caught bluffing twice recently after checking the turn and betting the river. This time he can repeat the same play pattern with suspicions already running high. But shrewdly he decides to go for the juggernaut by betting well over the size of the pot in an act of seeming desperation. If it was a bluff it would be a terrible one but Player A is self-aware enough to appreciate that recent form suggests he is capable of a really bad play. With all this in mind Player B is suckered into a call and left to rue his ill-fortune. He did nothing wrong but Player A utilised his good fortune by capitalising on his table image and sending out as much misinformation as possible.
Of course the opportunities to misdirect your opponent and feign weakness are not confined to times when you fluke a river. Had Player A flopped a set and bet out as normal he would likely have received a call anyway. The temptation would then be to check the turn and lure Player B into action having strongly implied weakness.
It stands to reason that if feigning weakness when strong is one target then suggesting strength when weak is the twin objective. Just one example of this would be the tournament bully who raises every time play passes to him on the button. Then suddenly, he calls instead of raising in that same position. The rest of us immediately exclaim, ‘why no raise – he must have AA!’ (Only in our heads of course). Many players fears the rogue limper and will proceed with caution. They are subsequently very unlikely to raise. Consequently, what a perfect opportunity to limp in with any old rubbish.
Simon Ballou writes for Oddschecker Poker