the-poker-grafter

Last week I discussed the virtues of selective continuation betting after a pre-flop raise. I talked through one situation where a flop bet seemed advisable when many people check, and conversely one scenario where many players bet but I would check. Such is the extent of the strategic possibilities in this aspect of the game that I thought I’d continue on the same subject again now.

As I touched on before, continuation betting off your own pre-flop raises is so commonplace that to not do so is generally regarded as weak. It is weak to hand over the initiative on any occasion when ‘first bet wins.’ One of the hardest things to evaluate is which scenarios are ‘first bet wins’ spots. Many ill-advised players will conclude that since so many pots are won by the anticipated continuation bet that doing so every time makes sense. I would agree that the continuation bet is the right play more often than not but, more controversially, I will argue that sometimes it is so doomed to failure that the weak play is the right play.

I think it’s abundantly clear that continuation betting can be very effective but I want to focus on its limitations and pitfalls.

To explain this thought process I’ll refer to my sit-n-go (SNG) strategy. In a single table tournament with 10 competitors the principle early objective is to survive. In a typical mid-stake tournament – such as for $55 -  at least two or three players are likely to play loose aggressive poker from the outset. This can be a great time to pick up a major hand for a good player because some ‘action’ is almost guaranteed and calling stations are likely to get involved with borderline hands. This will often mean that overpairs will double-up against players who can’t fold top pair and that AK and AQ will often plunder chips from opponents who play weak kickers.

This is all well and good but the abundance of worse, loose players can be a double-edged sword. (Note that in SNGs, players who play loose from the outset will be bad players 99% of the time).  The trouble that can come from reckless continuation betting at low-quality opponents is illustrated most starkly by that most frustrating of hands, AK. When I began playing regular SNGs this was the hand and the situation that continually put me in the soup.

Two players limp in from early positions since ‘the blinds are so low that it’s always nice to see a flop.’ The play passes to me who has to raise with AK. Let me repeat that I feel obliged to raise, because if 6-7 players limp I may well be in big trouble even if I seem to flop well. But with several loose aggressive players at the table my bet still attracts three players who will call a pre-flop raise with almost anything in the early stages of the tournament. The flop comes 10-Q-3. What do I do? Well, the old me came out firing with the continuation bet. I would do this because a strong bet can take the pot uncontested and if I got called then there were several cards I could still hit on the turn. But I don’t do this anymore because experience showed that all I generally got for my trouble was a depleted chip stack and irritated. This familiar situation needed to be identified as decidedly not a ‘first bet wins’ scenario. The continuation bet was no more than wishful thinking; it was rarely likely to work.

Now I adopt Plan B. Put simply, I don’t bet the flop and if I can’t see another card cheaply then I’ll fold. Now I realise this will be hugely disappointing to maverick players wanting to read about daring check raise bluffs that put the calling stations back in their place. This is early-phase SNG strategy at its most unsexy. Check-fold sounds lame, it sounds weak – and it is. But in the early stages of these tournaments self-preservation is what counts. Of course we all want to double-up early on and this can happen. But it will now take a lot more than ace-high and a gutshot straight draw to get me betting at three players who all want to chase. Put in these terms I think that the tentative approach sounds like a no-brainer. It’s worth emphasising that the mutli-way nature of this pot is the crucial factor in declining to bet the flop. Had only one opponent seen the flop on my raise I would certainly be betting most boards, particularly if in position.

I’ve concluded that weak play is acceptable in this situation, as much as it riles me to admit it. I console myself with the theory that if I know it seems weak then actually it isn’t that weak. Most weak players are oblivious to their own limitations where as I have escaped where strength would have most likely lost me chips. Furthermore, if any opponents regard me as weak then I can use that to my advantage later on when the pots really are worth fighting for. Concede the battle to win the war.

The continuation bet is such an expected and accepted part of Texas Holdem play pattern that people get in the habit of doing it thoughtlessly. For some characters if they have raised pre-flop then they will be betting the flop, regardless of what cards they hold and the nature of the flop. This has become the norm for a very good reason – it’s generally effective.  It’s a simple strategy that players of any standard can carry out. If you’ve hit the flop, then you’re betting a decent hand which is generally a good idea and if you’ve missed the flop then a bet out of the blocks may win you the hand anyway. What could be better? But as with all aspects of poker the continuation bet needs to be applied with intelligence and awareness to be most rewarding.

Firstly, if you raise with strong cards and hit the flop then the continuation bet is typically the right play to make. Your opponents may well call you with mediocre holdings such as top pair with a weak kicker, second pair or a draw. Average-poor players are always likely to do this because they find it hard to fold. This resolve is particularly tested when they’re on the blinds and they really want to see a flop. Then, if they get any piece of it they want to stay involved. From their perspective, all you did was raise and continue betting. That doesn’t mean anything because everyone bets off their own raises. You could have nothing. The dangerous mentality of a chaser is ‘I don’t have much but I have something. Mr Continuation Bet could easily have nothing, and something beats nothing.’

But what about continuation betting when you absolutely nail the flop – when you hit the nuts? This conjures up a dilemma for the pre-flop raiser who always bets the flop but now really wants some action. The great temptation is to suddenly check the flop and hope somebody else gets interested. This can work brilliantly against a novice or any player who has hit the flop well too. But the problem is that most experienced players around the table will hear a siren go off as soon as you check. Nothing ‘announces’ a big hand quite so loudly as a player who has been continuation betting all day, suddenly checking. With this play pattern good players will tread very carefully.

In one obvious example if I raise with AK, get one caller and the board comes Q-A-A, what should I do? The temptation is to check but then even the doziest observer is going to know that I have a great hand. If my opponent has nothing at this stage then a free card is unlikely to change that fact unless he miraculously hits a straight or a full house on the turn, which would be a disaster for me anyway. Furthermore, only a true optimist would attempt to bluff me in this spot when my check looks so strong.

So what if I do make the continuation bet? Well, naturally, there is a strong chance that he has missed the flop and will fold. But crucially if he has anything at all then my weak-looking bet will only encourage him. If he has a lower ace (other than AQ) then he is in big trouble but convinced he is winning. If he holds a queen then second pair looks very tasty against my ‘unconvincing’ bet. Even if my adversary holds any other pocket pair (other than QQ) he may well wrongly think he is in front and decide to raise. A particularly brave soul, let’s face it – probably a fish – may even try to take me off the hand with absolutely nothing if he concludes from my continuation bet that I don’t have an ace.

Conversely, if I’ve raised pre-flop with 99 and the flop comes A-Q-Q I may use my knowledge of what a continuation bet seems to represent here to play my hand shrewdly. Now I may check the flop with the intention of betting the turn to fully represent the ace. Admittedly, this is a move involving some risk since my opponent may have a hand themselves. But thinking logically, if they have hit the flop then my continuation bet at that point would have failed anyway. So really I’m only causing myself potential greater bother with the solitary turn card. Even then my opponent may well fold his superior hand if he’s convinced that I hold an ace.

It’s crucial to realise that there is no definitive right and wrong move in these scenarios. It depends on so many factors – detailed knowledge of your opponent, your current table image, how many hands you’ve played recently, position and chip stack size – to name a few. But robotically betting off your raises without forethought is doomed to failure in the long run. Being predictable is catastrophic against the best players and sooner or later they will punish you for it. So don’t get out-thought and out-played by always doing the same thing.