The basic mantra of single table tournament strategy is play tight early on and become increasingly aggressive as the blinds go up. Accelerating your play on ‘the bubble’ is widely regarded as essential to stop your stack dwindling as the blinds arrive more frequently in short-handed play. The other reason why attack is seen as the best form of defence is that some opponents may get tighter and weaker as the threat of elimination just shy of the money looms large. Consequently the aggression is more likely to succeed against such timidity. Now this is all well and good but surely there is a limit to how far the attack should go? I believe that there’s such a thing as pushing your luck. I also like to think that bubble aggression should be distinguished from moving all-in on every hand in the belief that everyone will be too scared to call you without a premium hand. For the maniac, bubble aggression is just a license to tilt.
First of all let me re-iterate why bubble aggression does work in general terms. A notion called the ‘gap concept’ was derived by celebrated poker author David Sklansky. The principle is actually quite straightforward; a player needs a better hand to call a raise with than to open the pot themselves. The difference between the hand needed to raise with and the hand needed to call with represented ‘the gap’. In tournament bubble strategy an all-in bet with any two cards might prove successful because of fold equity. The strength of the play is enhanced not by the quality of the start cards but rather by the degree of possibility that your opponent will feel forced to fold. Your opponent has no fold equity. He can only win the hand courtesy of a showdown. Most players will be keen to avoid pivotal showdowns without what they estimate to be a considerable edge, not least on the bubble. For this basic reason bubble aggression succeeds as it frequently forces the better hand to fold.
The infuriating thing is that some players have heard about the cocktail of bubble aggression, fold equity and the gap concept and concluded that all-in every time is probably the optimum strategy. The annoying thing about this simplistic, frankly lazy approach is that it works pretty well. It is a nightmare to play against because it significantly reduces your own opportunities to be the aggressor yourself. It grates for the further reason that you frequently see the bubble bully get ‘caught out’ throwing his chips all-in w J-3 only to crush A-K anyway. And what can be more annoying than knowing your opponent is playing ‘any two’ on your big blind and you can never get higher than 8-high to call with.
The flip side of this is that the bubble bullies will throw away golden positions more often than anybody who is capable of reigning in their maniacal tendencies. The all-in play seems to become addictive and these guys often seem oblivious to the fact that their fold equity can go out the window pretty quickly. The most likely cause of this is when the bubble period of the game suddenly ends and everybody left is guaranteed a prize. Suddenly the remaining contenders are queuing up to call the all-ins with anything from queen high to double up and teach him a lesson. It’s easier to be brave at this point and Q-9 can look like a monster against ‘any two’. But even during the bubble phase those of us playing to win will not shy away from calling for our tournament lives with ace-rag. The eternal hope of a bubble maniac that he will only be called by a premium hand is wishful thinking against those who extend their calling range accordingly.
It’s a fine line between aggression and tilt at the climax of a SNG. While the maniac can go too far with his approach he will certainly be more profitable than the rock who meekly surrenders while waiting for big hands to play. That said, he will make less money in the long term than the master who applies controlled aggression with awareness of the constantly changing game dynamic. An alternative that needs examining in closer detail is the tactic of replacing the frequent all-in with the stealth steal raises. This has the benefit of allowing you to fold if you do run into a big hand. The problem of that is when have you really run into a big hand? Or have your measured raises simply opened the door for the re-steal bluffs? I’ll open this alternative can of worms on another occasion. But one thing’s for sure; there’s more to bubble strategy than meets the eye.